Despite the refusal to be directly involved in the war, the price of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will increase for Minsk.
On March 30th, the General Staff of the Army of Ukraine issued a statement that deems Belarus an aggressor state. It is unlikely that such statements contradict the position of the political leadership.
On March 31st, the US representative to the OSCE stated that the Belarusian regime was responsible for the invasion of Ukraine.
On the same day, the military intelligence of Ukraine stated that it had the personal data of all Belarusian servicemen of the units that could take part in the war.
On April 1st, the US Department of Commerce imposed sanctions against the military-industrial complex of Belarus.
In addition to the external “ring of enemies,” dissent has emerged among the formal allies of Minsk and Moscow. The CSTO countries are unwilling to assist with plans for circumventing Western sanctions as envisaged.
The external reaction of the Belarusian regime to the Russian invasion of Ukraine always had a political, financial and economic dimension, but now there is also a security dimension. We can expect a further strengthening of defence and security sector pressure on Minsk: demilitarisation in action.