In the 20th century, a big number of theoretical papers on military and defense issues appeared after every major war. Researchers tried to evaluate the results and to forecast the possible form of future wars in order to be able to state the best way to prepare for them. But they never managed to do it completely – every other war successfully surpassed all previous expectations and experience. However, states, that have paid more attention to this problems and tried to implement the projects, made by the experts, in their own state practice, almost always got in a winning situation.
Today, any discussion of topics related to security can not take place without regard to the war waged by the international terrorism against civilized society. Speaking about formal closest ally of Belarus — Russia, it can be stated, that Russia clearly understands, that their direct enemy is aggressive Islamic fundamentalism, and a potential convention enemy is China, the struggle against which without the help of the West is impossible and hopeless. So, as the final result the union of Russia with the West is inevitable and has no alternatives.
It’s necessary to understand that Russia will finally become ally of the West, when it will become an integral and officially accepted part of it. Is the West able to the incorporate Russia? Not yet, but the process is up and its result will be clear: Russia as part of the historic West. This is predetermined by the fact that the West and Russia in fact are the only civilization allies.
Thus, any current standoff between them can not be deep and prolonged. Their ruling elites increasingly intertwine, conflicts will be resolved in a public (and often not transparent) dialogue.
Belarus is a small country, and, while approaching to ensuring of security, must take into account its belonging to the Euro-Atlantic civilization, because a civilizational conflict is coming to replace other forms of conflict as the dominant type of the global struggle.
In Colonel Messner’s “Face of Modern War” a new form of war got the name of “revolt-war”. Developing his ideas in “Revolt — the name of the third world war”, he defined the driving forces and forms of “revolt-war”. Developments in recent years confirm the thoughts of Mr. Messner.
Armed Forces (hereinafter AF) of Belarus largely base on the experience of World War II. While at the same time some new approaches to changing forms of struggle at some extent reflected in the structure of the Armed Forces.
What, then, should be land forces Belarus at this stage? It should be noted that, despite all the changes, onslaught and strikes are the deciding factor of the battle. Today everyone understands strikes as fire to defeat the enemy. Onslaught is the action in mainly of land forces, securing the results of strikes and determining the outcome of the battle.
Thus, the land forces of Belarus should include:
— Quick Reaction Force (Mobile Force)
— General purpose forces
— Territorial defence.
Quick Reaction Force should primarily focus on the effective participation of our country in operations abroad under the auspices of international organizations, including NATO and the EU. Currently, this category consists of three brigades of troops of special operations forces. In the case of a direct military threat to our country, these units should operate in the most important areas in conjunction with the troops of general purpose.
General purpose forces must be able to protect the national territory for 2 or 3 directions. They should include the operational command of the military departments (some of which can be deployed and increased to the wartime size), equipment and weapons storages as mobilization centers of special forces and connections (communication, engineering, NBC, EW and others). Brigades, deployed and increased to the wartime size in peacetime should be able to strengthen the Quick Reaction Force and be the main base for the preparation of reserves.
Territorial troops are to be formed according to administrative-territorial principle. The model for the system of formation could be borrowed from Switzerland. With a minimum of regular troops, each citizen goes through permanent military training at the monthly (lasting 1-2 days) and annual (1-2 weeks) trainings, where the training in the specialty, serving as a defence groups of predefined boundaries and struggling sabotage and diversion is maintained and improved.
At the moment in Belarus territorial defence exists only in the form of loud statements and assigning the rank of generals to chairmen of regional executive committees.
Worked out interaction of all units of the Army and close coordination with allies is a guarantee of success both on own territory and outside the country in multilateral operations.
Currently, the greatest concern is the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO troops. Destabilization there creates a completely new situation in the CIS borders and provides challenges to the national security of Belarus. The only preventive measure can be increasing the efficiency of cooperation within the framework of CSTO and expanding cooperation with NATO and the EU. In this case, it would be better to consider the two blocks, NATO and the CSTO, as main forces of the civilized world against the forces of barbarism and terror. Recent actions of that barbarian forces could be easily seen at the example of northern Mali, where terrorists destroyed not only the ideological opponents, but also significant monuments of world cultural heritage.
Information note about the expert:
Born on August 17, 1947 in Minsk.
Graduated from the Kharkov Higher Tank Command School (1970) and the Military Academy of Armoured Forces (1977), the Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the USSR (1991), the Academy of Management under the President of the Republic of Belarus (2000). Major-General.
Member of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus of II convocation (2000-2004). A member of the Committee on National Security. A member of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada).